Abstract Database

RAPID DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR EGYPT

MEE22711
Hani Saber ELBEHIRI
Supervisor: Tatsuhiko HARA, Yushiro FUJII
Country: Egypt
Abstractfulltext

Early warning systems in countries depend on how fast they can determine source parameters, especially magnitude. This study used SeisComP3 (SC3) to determine different magnitudes for 32 significant earthquakes in the Mediterranean Sea. Different magnitudes (i.e., mb, Mwp, and mB) under different computational times are compared with the Mww determined by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for evaluation. Tsunami Travel Time (TTT) Software Package by ITIC was used to calculate the tsunami wave arrival times on Egypt's coasts. The results obtained for mb confirmed the magnitude saturation, especially for large earthquakes. We determined the relationship between Mww and Mwp and between Mww and mB. We obtained Mw estimates from Mwp using the formula implemented in SC3 and those using the relation of this study. Then, we evaluated the tsunami messages following the Standard Operational Procedures at different times and compared those for Mww from USGS. The messages did not change much for the estimates from SC3 and those from the formula of this study. At 11 minutes after the origin times, for 28 events, the messages are accurate, and for 4 events, they are under-estimates for both cases. For mB results at 11 minutes after the origin times, for 22 events, the messages are accurate, and for 10 events, they are false when the estimates from SC3 were used. The number of false messages decreased to 6 when we applied the formula obtained by this study. These results suggest that Mwp is more stable and accurate than mB. It takes more than 65 minutes for tsunamis from the Hellenic and Cyprian arcs to reach the Egyptian coasts. Therefore, tsunami warnings around 11 minutes after the origin times are expected to be effective for tsunami countermeasures in Egypt.

Keywords: Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS), Magnitude estimation, Mwp, mB, SeisComP3.