We performed a
parametric study using linear and non linear numerical simulations to find the
possible worst tsunami scenario that could affect the central coasts of
Ecuador. From the calculation of seafloor deformation and the results of maximal
tsunami heights at coastal points, we obtained that earthquakes of Magnitude
greater than Mw 8.0 caused the maximal values. Then we used events of Magnitude
Mw 8.8 as seismic sources to run nonlinear simulations. These simulations got
values of inundation depth, necessary for the estimation of tsunami building
damage and casualties using fragility functions. We compared the inundation
area of the three scenarios that got the maximal values of inundation depth and
then we applied the fragility functions of Banda Aceh to each scenario. The
worst scenario that caused more damage in buildings and casualties corresponds
to an earthquake of Mw 8.8, with its SW edge fault, settled at 81.26° W
longitude and 0.59° S latitude with a focal depth of 14 km. The assumed slip
was 10 meters for a rupture of 400 km in length and 160 km in width. The strike
was parallel to the Nazca trench, 23°; the characteristic dip was 16° and the
rake was 90°. This hypothetical event generated waves up to 5 meters high at
the coast of Manta and caused an inundation extension of 3.05 km^{2} in
the coastal sectors of Manta. All the models represent the great threat of
inundation for the beautiful beaches of Manta. We obtained that in the coastal sectors, 13% of the population would
be killed and 24.42% of houses would be
damaged if an earthquake of Mw 8.8 generates a tsunami.

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**Keywords**: Ecuador,
Tsunami, Fragility function, Damage estimation