Vol.51 January 2017 Burtiev RASHID
SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT METHOD BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC MODELS OF SEISMICITY
Authors: Burtiev RASHID
Abstract
The most informative measure of the seismic hazard and the methodology of it assessment is developed. It means that in a location of the Earth's surface during the interval t, ground shaking will occur n times and nk of them - with intensity of Ik. Such approach may be useful for earthquake resistant construction strategy, because each strong earthquake can affect the buildings' resistance capacity. To identify the area of earthquakes belonging to the concrete seismogenic zone the cluster analysis is used. The Markov model of sequence all seismic events from all seismogenic zones is elaborated, which allows to forecast the interval values of latitudes, longitudes, depth of the hypocenters and magnitudes of earthquakes. The coefficients of intensity attenuation equation for Moldova, elaborated on the base of macroseismic data set of the intermediate Vrancea earthquakes is defined. Macroseismic field of Vrancea intermediate earthquakes extended from the southwest on the northeast. A configuration, having the shape of an ellipse which major axis is turned on angle γ0=510 concerning the positive direction of abscissa axis. The coefficients of the attenuation relationships between seismic intensity I and earthquake's characteristics: magnitude MW, epicentral distance ρ, depth h in the Vrancea zone are represented by empirical azimuth-dependent attenuation equation: I=aMW-blog(ρ2+h2)0.5+c. The values were determined as follows: a=1.6; c=7.2, the biggest axis of the ellipse being bmax=5.6 and the smallest bmin=4.9. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed and the map of seismic hazard of Moldova and adjacent territory is elaborated. For performance demonstration of the proposed method the different characteristics of seismic hazard in Chisinau - capital of Moldova is calculated. The probability values of occurrence at least one ground shaking with degree 4,..,8 of MSK-1964 intensities in the 50 years' time period obtained using the author's formula coincides with values obtained using the EUROCOD - 8 standards for the same time period.
Citation: Burtiev RASHID (2017). SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT METHOD BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC MODELS OF SEISMICITY. Bulletin of IISEE, 51, 22-38, 2017.
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